An unwanted 3rd anniversary

Three years ago today our house was flooded as a result of a major storm which hit Berkshire and flooded thousands of properties in West Berkshire alone.  The nearby Glade Festival was flooded and children from the local school had to be evacuated by boat. 

You would hope that by now our property would have been completely fixed and returned to normal.  That would of course assume that the loss adjuster, the insurance company, their various sub contractors and the four sets of builders who have so far departed the job without succeeding in completing the job could organise a proverbial in a brewery. 

 Instead we have had a long litany of problems from loss adjusters and builders who refused to remove the wet plaster and so delayed the drying process to builders for whom the term “cowboys” would have been polite and who seemed to think that laying wet wood as a floor would solve the problem that was caused by oh yes the wooden floor getting wet!  Then there were the packers from the removal company who thought packing priceless pots in with books and labelling the box “books” so it could be stacked neatly in their storage facility was a bright idea.  The problem was of course that the boxes of books crushed the ones underneath full of pots and destroyed the pottery in the process.

The latest in a long line of contractors is arriving on Thursday to assess how best to begin the process of yet again attempting to get us a floor that is not either non existent, wet, warped or full of holes.  Fingers crossed.

After the dust has settled.

It is interesting to look back now at the last six weeks.

A hard-fought campaign during which I felt that the Liberal Democrats by and large put our best foot forward.  The innovation of the TV debates certainly turned things on their head for a while and Nick Cleggs great performances meant that the Liberal Democrats were suddenly polling above 30% and in many polls were actually running second ahead of Labour.  Even though this seemed to drift away gradually towards the end of election it looked like we were headed for a great result.  Even on polling day the atmosphere and vibe was really good.  The exit poll at 10pm was shockingly negative (and at the time it seemed it could not be right) but within a few hours as the ballots came pouring out of the boxes (certainly in Liverpool where I was ) it became all too clear that the Liberal Democrat surge had largely been squeezed.

So we were left with a hung parliament that has led to a Liberal Democrat / Conservative coalition government

How do I feel about this?

On the one hand it is hard to stomach being in bed with the Conservatives

On the other hand it is probably the only logical conclusion given the precise verdict of the electorate. 

The proposed coalition with the Labour Party was clearly not a runner given

•  The attitude of those sent to negotiate with the Liberal Democrats
•  The attitude of many senior Labour figures commenting in public whilst those discussions were taking place
• The likelihood of such a  coalition falling with only 315 votes in the House of Commons.
• The likelihood of a subsequent General Election leading to a further squeeze on Labour and the Liberal Democrats so leading to a majority Conservative Government

 The other main option would have been a Conservative Minority Government.  This too would probably not have lasted very long and again would have led to a subsequent General Election and a majority Conservative Government.

So coalition it is and an opportunity to put some of our policies into practice and at the same time hopefully demonstrate that a hung parliament is not necessarily a bad thing in that it forces politicians to work together and hopefully eliminates some of the worst excesses that occur when one party with maybe as little as 25% of the population supporting them takes all the power.

What do people want, what will they vote for and what will they get?

So roughly a third of the British electorate would like to see a Liberal Democrat Government or so at least the opinion polls seem to indicate at present.  Roughly the same amount want a Tory Government and slightly less would like to see a Labour Government. 

 According to the UK Polling report calculator a result along the lines of 33% Tory, 32% Liberal Democrat and 27% Labour with 8% others would lead to the following result (assuming a uniform swing).

• Labour – 255 seats (for the party in third place)
• Conservative  – 246 seats (for the party in first place)
• Liberal Democrat – 118 seats (for the party in second place)
• Others – 31 seats

Aside from the obvious inequities of the first past the post system on such a result there is interesting news from YouGov.

According to Peter Kellner YouGov asked “How would you vote on May 6 if you thought the Liberal Democrats had a significant chance of winning the election”.

The response they got was staggering as follows :

•  Liberal Democrat 49%
• Conservative 25%
• Labour 19%
• Others 7%

Let us assume for a minute that half of the people who need to be persuaded that the Liberal Democrats can win the election can actually be persuaded that this is so.  Not all of them just half of them.

This might leave us with the following percentage votes assuming slightly more gain from Labour than the Tories

•  Liberal Democrat 40.5%
• Conservative 29.5%
• Labour 23%
• Others 7%

On the same basis of a uniform swing this would achieve the following result

• Labour – 155 seats (for the party in third place)
• Conservative  – 178 seats (for the party in second place)
• Liberal Democrat – 288 seats (for the party in first place)
• Others – 29 seats

At least a result which is more representative of the actual votes……and on a non uniform swing who know what might happen.

If people voted as per the YouGov poll then the figures (again on a uniform swing) would be as follows.

• Labour – 19 seats (for the party in third place)
• Conservative  – 25 seats (for the party in second place)
• Liberal Democrat – 548 seats (for the party in first place)
• Others – 15 seats

Again this would show up the madness of first past the post – still at least it would put the Liberal Democrat Members of Parliament into the position where they would be the turkeys voting for an early Christmas as we moved to a proportional system!

What a 24 hours

First last night debate and Nicks fantastic performance against Cameron and Brown, then an opinion poll showing the Liberal Democrats on 35% (later adjusted properly to 24%) and now the latest YouGov poll shows us on 30% and in second place and only 3 points behind the Conservatives.  Labour meanwhile have slipped to third place with 28%.   What a great boost to all our candidates fighting so hard on the ground to grow the size of our parliamentary party.  That swing in itself will mean that the Tories will suddenly find themselves threatened in seats where they previously though they were safe such as Newbury and Guildford – both seats where we have experienced former Members of Parliament standing.

Situation worsening in Thailand

The situation in Thailand seems to be gradually becoming more and more chaotic.  After days of protest involving peacefully taken blood being daubed on government buildings real blood has been spilt in the last few days and the latest estimates seem to indicate that 21 people have been killed and as many as 900 injured as the military attempted to deal with the red shirt protestors.  The good news is that the military ,at least, seem to be having second thoughts and have drawn back from the conflict with the army chief now suggesting that parliament should be dissolved.  According to the BBC Gen Anupong Paojinda stated ” The best solution of this is to dissolve the House. I don’t want to intervene in politics but I guess the end will be a House dissolution.   Political problems must be solved by political means. House dissolution is a solution but that must be done after a clear time-frame is set.”  Meanwhile a further intervention has come from the Electoral Commission which voted to seek dissolution of  the Democrat Party led by the Prime Minister  in connection with allegations of financial irregularities surrounding the last election.  However, it has also been reported that the red shirts have rejected an offer to dissolve parliament at some point in the next six to nine months and are continuing to push for an immediate dissolution.  Watch this space for anything from a dissolution at gun point through to a further military coup.  Whatever the outcome I am sure that the military will play a key role in the coming days.

Great to see Nick visiting a key target seat yesterday

”]Fantastic to see Nick Clegg out campaigning with our candidate Colin Eldridge in Liverpool Wavertree on day two of the campaign.  I have know Colin for many years and he has a really good chance of taking this seat on May 6th.  I believe that he would, if elected, be a really good, effective hard working and honest MP for the people of the Wavertree Constituency.  Someone they can trust and who will endeavour to do the best for his contituents at all times.

Thailand update

According to the BBC the Thai Prime Minister has declared a state of emergency in Bangkok to deal with the ongoing anti-government protests.  A couple of days ago protestors were occupying key up market shopping centres and now they have marched on parliament as part of their campaign to get the government to resign and call fresh elections.  The state of emergency gives powers to security forces to help restore order so I guess there will be troops back on the streets of Bangkok again.  I still think that all sides need to get together and firm up a consensus constitution or form a government of national unity if there is to be any serious attempt to resolve this issue.  Further elections either now or later are not going to help if the powers that be will not recognise the legitimacy of those elected to represent the rural poor.

Labour to target Osborne – Cameron should be the target for Liberal Democrats

According to the Observer Labour is targeting George Osborne as the weakest link in the Conservative team

Party sources told the Observer that a decision had been taken to focus on Osborne as the prime target throughout the campaign, because the future stewardship of the economy is the issue that most concerns voters.

They said there was “strong evidence” from their own focus groups that people regard Osborne as “shrill, immature and lightweight”, and that the Tories are already being harmed in the polls because of doubts about their economic policies.

This seems fine to me as far as it goes and I will be happy to see Vince take him on tomorrow night on Channel 4 and throughout the campaign.

However, I think the Liberal Democrats should be concentrating their fire power (at least as far as the Conservatives are concerned) on Cameron.  This is the man who claims to have made the Conservative Party electable again.  Supposedly they are no longer the nasty party of british politics but that statement hides a multitude of sins that Cameron needs to be brought to account for.

Two that come to mind are as follows:

1) The decision to withdraw the Conservative MEPs from the European Peoples Party and the even worse decision to join the new European Conservatives and Reformists grouping consisting of some far right characters who would not elicit much sympathy from the british public and headed by a Michal Kaminski who has made some seriously offensive remarks in the past.  Does Mr Cameron wonder why the former Tory leader in Brussels, Edward McMillan-Scott, has decided to join the Liberal Democrats?

2) David Cameron’s recent performance in an interview with Gay Times.  If you click here you can see the interview itself and Cameron’s bumbling, stumbling performance.

A six pointer?

 

I am really looking forward to tonight’s game against Millwall as we will be there in person.  The Yorkshire Evening Post says that “Grayson will give his players licence to “express themselves” on a crucial evening at Elland Road”

Six pointers are traditionally thought of as for those that are battling it out at the other end of the table.  However, in terms of the race for automatic promotion this game looks like a six pointe just the same.  Leeds are four points clear of third with a game in hand (the game against Millwall tonight).  A win tonight and they are seven points clear, lose and Millwall themselves will be a mere three points behind.  Heres hoping that the players manage to express themselves in a positive way and I will happily settle for a repeat of the last time I saw these two teams meet live when Leeds won 4-2..

Thai government stance makes no sense

According to the Bangkok Post the government have now agreed to meet with the red shirts if Thaksin Shinawatra (who has been just been granted citizenship by Montenegro) agrees that it is ok.  This seems slightly odd to say the least given the government’s stance on Thaksin up until now.  As far as they are concerned he is on the run and awaits a jail term if he returns to Thailand.  So why are they keen to talk?  Maybe this at last reflects some realism with regard to the political situation in Thailand.

It is interesting to see that the Pracharaj Party leader Sanoh Thienthong has suggested that a national government should be set up.  I have previously blogged to the effect that some form of national unity government may be the only practicable way forward and at least this option now seems to be on the table.  The government has said that such a national government could not include UDD core leaders but notably did not state that a national government could not happen and did not rule out other potential Thaksin supporters from forming part of such a government.  This may be a significant step forward if there is to be any hope of ending the current impasse.  There was also mention of such a government attempting to resolve the dispute over the constitution and that would be a significant step forward if all parties are engaged in that process and sign up to the final version.

Trouble brewing in Thailand again

According to the Bangkok Post and the BBC trouble has brewing in Thailand again with somewhere around 100,000 protestors taking to the streets of Bangkok demanding that the Prime Minister resign and dissolve the House of Representatives setting in train a new set of elections. 

This is all part of the long running battle between the pro and anti Thaksin forces which has bedeviled the country since Thaksin Shinawatra was ousted in a military coup in 2006.  His party was subsequently banned, but further incarnations have arisen, received significant electoral backing and then also been ruled illegal. 

Frankly barring some form of government of National Unity which at least addresses some of the concerns of the rural poor it seems unlikely that this will be resolved in a peaceful way. 

Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see whether the 1,000,000 protestors that have been threatened materialise and what the impact of the further protests which are planned for key sites across Bangkok tomorrow and in the coming days have on the ability of the government to govern.

13 years too late

According to the Sunday Telegraph and the BBC Labour might be about to announce that it would seek to abolish the House of Lords and replace it with a 300 member fully elected chamber.  Apparently Jack Straw is consulting cabinet colleagues about plans that may be put forward before the election. 

This rather reminds me of Labours approach to voting reform….too late. 

 Having been in power for 13 years there have been plenty of opportunities to push forward the agenda of constitutional reform that this country so badly needs if we are to have a fully functioning and grown up political system.  Suddenly as we approach the fag end of a tired Labour government they are busy expressing an interest in voting reform (albeit still not STV) and an elected second chamber.  Cynics might wonder why they are suddenly having second thoughts.  The likelihood that they will not be able to form the next government might provide an answer.

Exploitation of interns

BBC News had an interesting story on earlier about the use and abuse of interns.  There were two things that really struck me about the whole story

1) The obvious difficulties which this creates for young people who are desperate to get some real experience in a particular field and who do not have the funds to either pay for one or support themself during an unpaid internship.

2) The strange way in which the BBC have handled the story.  The minor footnote to the whole story is that a government website called Graduate Talent offers thousands of these sorts of opportunities and many of these are unpaid.  As the story makes clear if people are employed in these sort of work positions then the minimum wage rules apply.  So a government website under a Labour government is promoting positions that breach its own minimum wage legislation.  Now that is really something the BBC should be making the main plank of the story.

When will this sort of behaviour be taken seriously enough

So another person has been driven to an early grave by the bullying behaviour of so called neighbours.  According to the Independent the gentleman concerned had been bullied for a decade

Ms Davies said her neighbour was targeted because of his learning difficulties, adding: “They would torment him all the time.  Sometimes it would be two of them, others it would be six kids or a big gang.

This case is so reminiscent of the Fiona Pilkington case where someone is driven to a desperate place by the callous and cruel behaviour of others.  People with a learning disability are amongst some of the most vulnerable in our society and so end up on the brunt of a disproportionate amount of what might be termed “hate crime”.  As someone who works in the field I know that as far as people with a learning disability are concerned these are not isolated cases.

As a civilised society we have to find better ways of tackling these problems so that people like this no longer have to tolerate a life of abuse and torment.  The Chief Inspector of Constabulary Denis O’Connor said “the failure to properly record and tackle incidents undermined confidence in the police, and called for urgent improvements”  I really hope for the sake of people affected by this sort of behaviour that individual police forces take note and act.

Its not just Sir Nicholas Winterton!

A couple of weeks ago Sir Nicholas Winterton gave a cracking interview on Radio 5.  I happened to be listening at the time and was fairly slack-jawed by the end of the interview and the contempt and ignorance which he displayed for the general public who elected him and pay his salary and expenses.  A report of the interview in which he called standard class passengers a “different type of person” can be found here.

Now it has emerged that a significant number of MPs feel the same way.  What is so frustrating is that a significant number of Members of Parliament simply do not seem to understand the depth of feeling amongst the British public and that in times where we are all having to tighten our belts and when many people are unemployed expecting the taxpayer to pick up bills for first class travel is not likely to go down well.

All three parties agree!

For once all three political parties are in agreement over something.

According to the latest news Leeds United’s owners have  been declared fit and proper by the Football League but they are to be allowed to remain anonymous.   Another victory for Uncle Ken and a complete and utter farce particularly given the situation when Leeds went in and out of administration back in 2007.

As The Guardian made clear at the time the whole way in which Leeds came out of administration was unusual

Ken Bates won control of Leeds United despite KPMG being presented with bigger cash offers, documents released by the administrator showed yesterday. The bid on behalf of Bates’s Leeds United 2007, the company demanding the transfer of the Football League share which would endorse its takeover, was for an unconditional £1.8m. A tender from Redbus Group and Simon Morris offered almost double that sum – £3.501m.

What apparently swung the process in Bates’s favour was that Astor Investment Holdings, an offshore company, stated its willingness to waive the £17.6m it was owed. Had any of the three rival bids won, Astor would have stood firm on the £17.6m. This meant the £3.5m offered by Redbus-Morris would have been spread much thinner, across £30.25m as against the £12.6m being demanded of Bates. “The key factor is the Astor waiver of the debt for one of the bidders, which at the least is unusual,” said Dean Dorrell, the chief executive of Redbus. “Coming across insolvencies as often as we do, it’s unusual for an unconnected party to make that offer to a bidder. The whole process was extremely unsatisfactory.”

There were many questions which needed answering at that point in time  and to the disgust of most Leeds fans most of them remain unanswered now.  Perhaps most pertinent was this question :

Who are the owners or beneficiaries of the Forward Sports Fund, Astor Investment Holdings and Krato Trust, and why have they chosen to register their companies in offshore tax havens where they are not legally required to declare their identity?

It looks as if this question is to remain unanswered.  Personally I think the fans have a right to know who owns their club…and the politicians agree.

Hush Puppy Man Puts His Foot In It!

I am sure that David Cameron must be wondering just what it was that encouraged him to bring Ken Clarke back into the shadow cabinet.  According to The Guardian Ken has publicly highlighted the inexperience of the Tory leadership.

“Appearing before a City audience with 43-year-old Cameron, and 38-year-old Osborne, Clarke, 69, and now the shadow business secretary, said: “I am delighted to appear as part of this young, inexperienced team, which is a quite extraordinarily united team.”

To be fair he went on to contrast the Tory teams inexperience with the Prime Minister’s experience in wrecking the economy.  All the same I expect that Gordon Brown will be only too happy to point out, in the televised debates that have just been agreed, that even Cameron’s own supporters think he is inexperienced.

No wonder voters are unsure

According to yesterdays Guardian voters are still unsure about the Tories.   Well I guess given the opinion polls that is not surprising.  The Tories seem a little light on policy and detail for instance precisely how they propose to cut the budget deficit.  Where they do have policies they struggle to communicate them (witness Cameron’s slip up earlier this year) and sometimes it appears that they are making decisions on the hoof (witness the announcement re tax breaks on marriage in his speech at the weekend)

The policy announcement this year that has really taken my breath away and which seems entirely indicative of the contempt with which the Tories hold the electorate has been their plan to sell off the UK government stake in the banks.  They propose to give taxpayers a discount on the shares as they try to off load them.  What they seem to ignore is the fact that the banks are actually owned by the UK government …in other words they are owned by us the taxpayer. What they appear to be suggesting is that taxpayers should pay to buy something into which they have already pumped billions and which they already own.  Far better to float the shares on the open market at an appropriate time and pay down some of the debt

Ballots, Balls and Bikes returns

Nearly two years after my last blog post I am in the process of refurbishing the site and checking the links ready to start blogging again.

My absence from the blogosphere for so long was caused by a number of different things which all occurred around the same time…a flooded house and redundancy to name but two.   The house is now fixed (mostly) and I seem to be gainfully employed (most of the time) and also working on an MSc in Voluntary Sector Management.  For some reason my enthusiasm to blog has returned so hopefully you will be hearing more from me in the coming months.

Meanwhile please bear with me as I tidy up and fix any broken links

Masters

I could not resist adding this photo of Leila getting her Msc in Voluntary Sector Management at Southwark Cathedral last week.  It was a great day and I was very proud of her.

Samak is new Prime Minister

Thailand’s new parliament yesterday elected Samak Sundaravej, the leader of the PPP, as the country’s new Prime Minister. Cabinet appointments are expected to follow once the appointment of the new Prime Minister has been ratified by King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

Aside from the problems of running a six party coalition government and handling the tricky issue of Thaksin Shinawatra’s potential return to Thailand The Guardian reports that “Samak, a right-winger in several army-backed governments that arrested and killed opponents, is himself fighting a two-year sentence for defamation and is the subject of corruption allegations over the purchase of fire trucks while he was Bangkok governor”

Two down one to go

Poyet gone

Wise gone

Just Bates to go and we will have got the Chelsea out of Leeds.

Of course you can’t blame Wise for going to a job with a reported salary of £1.5m a year albeit a job whose role does not appear to be entirely clear and where the new manager does not seem ecstatic about his arrival.

Main question now is who will take over as manager of Leeds

Peace talks?

A fascinating headline in this mornings Bangkok Post grabbed my attention.

Surayud calls for peace talks

Presumably this would be about trying to bring peace to the southern part of Thailand where the government and insurgents have been waging an ongoing battle.  But no this was about peace talks between the military and the incoming PPP coalition government.

This seemed to imply several possibilities

1)  The outgoing military junta is worried about possible reprisals from the incoming PPP coalition.

2) The outgoing military junta is worried that the rumours about the incoming PPP coalition are true and that they propose to rewrite the constitution before dissolving parliament and holding further elections.

3) The military really do wish to try and reach some compromise solution between what one might term the pro and anti Thaksin forces in the country to try and achieve some longer term stability

4) The statement is actually a veiled threat.  If you need peace talks then that kind of implies that you are at war.  If you are at war then of course that might be a justification for a further military coup if things develop in a way which is not to your liking.

Hopefully it is number three and not number four.  Assuming it is number three then I suspect a lot of compromises will have to be made on all sides none of which will sit particularly well with the respective groups supporters. 

For a start I guess the pro Thaksin side will want to see all charges against him and his wife dropped.  In return the anti Thaksin side will want assurances that the outgoing military government and those who supported it will not be pursued and prosecuted.  So far so good aside from the obvious fact that all parties ought to face the consequences of their actions. 

The anti Thaksin forces will want Thaksin to promise to stay out of politics which he may agree to but I suspect that even if he does agree he will remain very active behind the scenes and the anti Thaksin side will not trust him in any case.  The anti Thaksin side will also want guarantees that the constitution will remain unchanged and it may be this that proves to be the sticking point.

Samak forms a government

Yesterday the Supreme Court threw out all the cases against the PPP and the Election Commission which could have blocked the PPP’s attempts to form a government.  Oddly the Supreme Court rejected three of the cases on the grounds that it did not have the power to do so.  Without the detail it is difficult to tell why this might be so.

The People Power Party leader Samak Sundaravej has today held a press conference to officially announce a six-party coalition government.  The government will include the Chart Thai, Puea Pandin, Pracharaj, Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and Matchimathipataya parties and will have 315 out of the 480 members of parliament.

Mike Ashley must be delighted – not

According to this mornings Bangkok Post the new Newcastle manager Kevin Keegan has gone on record as having told the press that “ambitious billionaire owner Mike Ashley has made a bottomless pit of cash available to help transform the club’s Premier League fortunes in what remains of the January window”

I am sure that Mike Ashley will not be impressed with such statements and with targets said to include Wayne Bridge. Jermaine Defoe and Wes Brown that statement about a bottomless pit could cost the club several million extra in transfer fees