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An unwanted 3rd anniversary

July 20, 2010 Comments off

Three years ago today our house was flooded as a result of a major storm which hit Berkshire and flooded thousands of properties in West Berkshire alone.  The nearby Glade Festival was flooded and children from the local school had to be evacuated by boat. 

You would hope that by now our property would have been completely fixed and returned to normal.  That would of course assume that the loss adjuster, the insurance company, their various sub contractors and the four sets of builders who have so far departed the job without succeeding in completing the job could organise a proverbial in a brewery. 

 Instead we have had a long litany of problems from loss adjusters and builders who refused to remove the wet plaster and so delayed the drying process to builders for whom the term “cowboys” would have been polite and who seemed to think that laying wet wood as a floor would solve the problem that was caused by oh yes the wooden floor getting wet!  Then there were the packers from the removal company who thought packing priceless pots in with books and labelling the box “books” so it could be stacked neatly in their storage facility was a bright idea.  The problem was of course that the boxes of books crushed the ones underneath full of pots and destroyed the pottery in the process.

The latest in a long line of contractors is arriving on Thursday to assess how best to begin the process of yet again attempting to get us a floor that is not either non existent, wet, warped or full of holes.  Fingers crossed.

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Categories: Uncategorized

What do people want, what will they vote for and what will they get?

April 24, 2010 Comments off

So roughly a third of the British electorate would like to see a Liberal Democrat Government or so at least the opinion polls seem to indicate at present.  Roughly the same amount want a Tory Government and slightly less would like to see a Labour Government. 

 According to the UK Polling report calculator a result along the lines of 33% Tory, 32% Liberal Democrat and 27% Labour with 8% others would lead to the following result (assuming a uniform swing).

  • Labour – 255 seats (for the party in third place)
  • Conservative  – 246 seats (for the party in first place)
  • Liberal Democrat – 118 seats (for the party in second place)
  • Others – 31 seats

Aside from the obvious inequities of the first past the post system on such a result there is interesting news from YouGov.

According to Peter Kellner YouGov asked “How would you vote on May 6 if you thought the Liberal Democrats had a significant chance of winning the election”.

The response they got was staggering as follows :

  •  Liberal Democrat 49%
  • Conservative 25%
  • Labour 19%
  • Others 7%

Let us assume for a minute that half of the people who need to be persuaded that the Liberal Democrats can win the election can actually be persuaded that this is so.  Not all of them just half of them.

This might leave us with the following percentage votes assuming slightly more gain from Labour than the Tories

  •  Liberal Democrat 40.5%
  • Conservative 29.5%
  • Labour 23%
  • Others 7%

On the same basis of a uniform swing this would achieve the following result

  • Labour – 155 seats (for the party in third place)
  • Conservative  – 178 seats (for the party in second place)
  • Liberal Democrat – 288 seats (for the party in first place)
  • Others – 29 seats

At least a result which is more representative of the actual votes……and on a non uniform swing who know what might happen.

If people voted as per the YouGov poll then the figures (again on a uniform swing) would be as follows.

  • Labour – 19 seats (for the party in third place)
  • Conservative  – 25 seats (for the party in second place)
  • Liberal Democrat – 548 seats (for the party in first place)
  • Others – 15 seats

Again this would show up the madness of first past the post – still at least it would put the Liberal Democrat Members of Parliament into the position where they would be the turkeys voting for an early Christmas as we moved to a proportional system!