Peace talks?

A fascinating headline in this mornings Bangkok Post grabbed my attention.

Surayud calls for peace talks

Presumably this would be about trying to bring peace to the southern part of Thailand where the government and insurgents have been waging an ongoing battle.  But no this was about peace talks between the military and the incoming PPP coalition government.

This seemed to imply several possibilities

1)  The outgoing military junta is worried about possible reprisals from the incoming PPP coalition.

2) The outgoing military junta is worried that the rumours about the incoming PPP coalition are true and that they propose to rewrite the constitution before dissolving parliament and holding further elections.

3) The military really do wish to try and reach some compromise solution between what one might term the pro and anti Thaksin forces in the country to try and achieve some longer term stability

4) The statement is actually a veiled threat.  If you need peace talks then that kind of implies that you are at war.  If you are at war then of course that might be a justification for a further military coup if things develop in a way which is not to your liking.

Hopefully it is number three and not number four.  Assuming it is number three then I suspect a lot of compromises will have to be made on all sides none of which will sit particularly well with the respective groups supporters. 

For a start I guess the pro Thaksin side will want to see all charges against him and his wife dropped.  In return the anti Thaksin side will want assurances that the outgoing military government and those who supported it will not be pursued and prosecuted.  So far so good aside from the obvious fact that all parties ought to face the consequences of their actions. 

The anti Thaksin forces will want Thaksin to promise to stay out of politics which he may agree to but I suspect that even if he does agree he will remain very active behind the scenes and the anti Thaksin side will not trust him in any case.  The anti Thaksin side will also want guarantees that the constitution will remain unchanged and it may be this that proves to be the sticking point.